Senior Analyst, Margin Forecasting

Overview

This Senior Analyst, Margin Forecasting role owns the analytical engine behind merchandise margin projection and variance explanation. The position builds and maintains a driver-based margin forecast, quantifies the volume, rate, and mix components of margin performance, and provides early warning signals so the business can act before results are finalized.

Responsibilities

• Own the margin forecast model by building and maintaining a driver-based merchandise margin forecast covering initial markup, landed cost, markdown, mix, and shrink
• Drive the rolling forecast cadence by updating and reissuing the margin forecast on an established schedule using the latest cost, pricing, and demand inputs
• Quantify drivers by decomposing margin performance and forecast changes into volume, rate, and mix with clear attribution to specific business actions
• Model scenarios to quantify margin impact of proposed pricing actions, cost changes, promotional plans, and assortment shifts

Variance Analysis & Reporting

• Own margin variance explanation by producing clear, well-structured bridges explaining margin actuals versus plan, forecast, and prior year
• Surface risks and opportunities by proactively identifying emerging margin risks and quantified opportunities and escalating with recommended actions
• Deliver executive reporting by preparing margin performance packages and executive dashboards that translate complex analysis into a clear narrative
• Maintain analytical integrity by ensuring consistent definitions, reliable data lineage, and reproducible methodology across margin reporting

Cross-Functional Partnership

• Partner with Sourcing to incorporate landed cost movement, supplier negotiations, and total cost of ownership inputs into the margin view
• Partner with Pricing to quantify realized margin impact of pricing and promotional decisions and feed results back into future recommendations
• Partner with Merchandise Finance to ensure the margin forecast reconciles cleanly to the financial plan and corporate forecast
• Support planning cycles by providing margin analytics that inform the annual operating plan and the merchandise long-range plan

Success Metrics

In the first 12 months, performance will be evaluated on:

• Forecast Accuracy: Demonstrated improvement in merchandise margin forecast accuracy against actual results
• Explanatory Power: Margin variance consistently explained by identified drivers rather than unattributed residual
• Decision Support: Margin analysis demonstrably informing pricing, sourcing, and assortment decisions on a recurring basis

Qualifications

Required

• Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Accounting, Economics, Statistics, or a related field
• 4–6 years of experience in financial analysis, merchandise finance, retail analytics, or a comparable analytical role
• Strong understanding of retail margin mechanics, including initial markup, landed cost, markdown, and realized margin
• Advanced Excel and financial modeling skills; proficiency with SQL strongly preferred
• Demonstrated ability to build driver-based forecast models and explain variance with analytical precision
• Strong communication skills, including the ability to present findings clearly to finance and non-finance leadership
• High standards for accuracy and analytical integrity, with the ability to move quickly without sacrificing either

Preferred

• Experience with enterprise planning tools such as Anaplan, Hyperion, or similar
• Furniture, home, or big-ticket retail experience
• Exposure to Power BI, Tableau, or comparable visualization tools

Compensation & Benefits

Base Pay

• $80,000 - $100,000 (base pay; not including potential commissions, incentive, or bonus opportunities)

Benefits (including but not limited to)

• Nationally provided Medical, Dental and Vision Insurance
• Paid Vacation, Personal Days, Sick Days, Holidays, work anniversary, and your Birthday
• 401(k) Profit Sharing Plan with a generous employer match
• Pet Insurance
• Life insurance: employer-paid basic Life Insurance, with an option to add Voluntary Life Insurance
• Financial Planning, Voluntary Legal Benefits and Wellness Plans
• Generous Employee Discount starting on your 1st day
• Additional employee discounts through an online discount program offering hundreds of discounts from favorite merchants

Location

Not specified in the provided job description.