Senior Strategy & Decision Analyst

Overview

This role ensures the organization’s most consequential decisions are made with demonstrable Decision Quality (DQ). By the time the Board, CEO, or a business unit commits, the decision must meet a standard comprising six DQ elements: an appropriate frame, creative and doable alternatives, meaningful and reliable information, clear values and trade-offs, sound reasoning, and commitment to action.

Because strategy and decision quality are closely interdependent, the position also leads elaboration of the Group’s and Business Unit’s cascading strategies in partnership with the relevant leaders—so strategy and the decisions that implement it are developed together rather than handed off at the end.

The role acts as an “honest broker”: neutral on which alternative wins, while uncompromising on the quality of the process that selects it. It also embeds risk-based, optionality-oriented thinking into decision-making and execution design from the outset.

Responsibilities

Strategy elaboration

• Hold regular meetings and workshops with leaders across the organization to elaborate and implement cascading strategies.
• Identify key growth initiatives and strategic issues, and collect bottom-up input for Group strategy iteration.
• Assist the Board and CEO with Group strategy definition and contribute to the negotiation of key agreements.
• Collaborate with Finance to help operations translate growth initiatives and strategic issues into budget inputs.
• Continuously shape strategy based on what is happening on the ground and through stakeholder interactions, ensuring decision support and strategy work reinforce one another.

Decision framing and structuring

• Work with the executive team to frame the organization’s most consequential decisions by defining the decision hierarchy (policy, strategic, tactical), clarifying what is being decided, by whom, and against which values.
• Structure complex decision situations into clear decision elements—decisions, risks/uncertainties, and values—using tools such as influence diagrams, decision hierarchies, and strategy tables.
• Develop genuinely creative and distinct sets of alternatives for major decisions, including hybrid strategies, explicitly preserving optionality in how decisions are executed.

Decision analysis and evaluation

• Lead quantitative evaluation of strategic alternatives, including:
  • Stochastic analysis for financial, operating, and project development decisions
  • Probabilistic financial modeling
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Decision trees
  • Tornado and sensitivity analysis
  • Real options valuation for staging, deferral, and expansion flexibility
• Quantify uncertainty rigorously by eliciting calibrated probability assessments from technical and commercial experts.
• Actively counter cognitive and motivational biases in probability inputs.
• Use value-of-information and value-of-control analysis to direct study, piloting, and de-risking spend toward uncertainties that matter to the decision.
• Make value trade-offs explicit (e.g., NPV vs. risk; growth vs. resilience; short-term cash vs. strategic positioning).
• Embed risk-based analysis upfront into strategy, budgeting, capital planning, project analysis, and M&A analysis, and stress-test assumptions to build resilience rather than relying on prediction alone.

Decision process facilitation and governance

• Design and facilitate decision-maker and project/analysis team dialogue (e.g., dialogue-based decision process), iterating framing, alternatives, analysis, and commitment with decision-makers instead of presenting output only at the end.
• Support decision review boards and stage-gate governance for major capital projects, providing independent DQ assessments of decisions prepared elsewhere.
• Help leaders structure, analyze, and present their difficult decisions, including negotiation support for key agreements.
• Coordinate closely with strategy and M&A work due to strong interdependence, contributing decision-analysis input to M&A screening, evaluation, and post-merger integration planning.

Organizational decision competency

• Build Group decision-making capability by training executives and analysts in DQ concepts and establishing common standards, templates, and language for framing, analysis, and documentation.
• Establish a proportionate DQ standard: full decision analysis for major capital and strategic choices, lightweight DQ checks for recurring decisions.
• Embed the DQ approach into planning and budgeting cycles with Finance.
• Build and lead a small decision-support team over time.
• Manage external decision analysis and consulting support where needed.

Requirements

• 10+ years in decision analysis/decision science, or strategy consulting with demonstrable decision analysis practice, ideally including natural resources, energy, or capital-intensive industries.
• Strong practical command of the decision analysis toolkit, including:
  • Decision framing and structuring
  • Probability elicitation and debiasing
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Decision trees and influence diagrams
  • Real options
  • Value of information
  • Multi-objective trade-off analysis
  • Financial modeling and valuation
• Proven experience facilitating executive-level decision and strategy processes, including leading workshops with Business Unit, Operating Unit, and function leaders to elaborate strategy and challenging senior leaders on frame and logic while remaining neutral on content.
• Strong communication skills; able to translate probabilistic and abstract concepts into clear insights for Boards and operational leaders.
• Track record of building organizational decision competency (not only delivering analyses).
• English fluency required.
• Portuguese and/or French is an advantage.

Preferred Qualifications

• Affiliation with the Society of Decision Professionals (or equivalent) is valued.
• SDP certification (e.g., Decision Analysis Affiliate/Practitioner) is a plus.

Compensation & Benefits

• Compensation and benefits details were not provided in the job description.

Location

• Location was not provided in the job description.

Additional Information

• This role includes reasonable accommodation considerations for qualified individuals with disabilities.
• Employment decisions are made without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, disability, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by applicable federal, state, or local law.