Senior Financial Analyst, Margin Forecasting and Analysis (Open to Remote)

Overview

This role owns the analytical engine behind merchandise margin projection and variance explanation. You will build and maintain a driver-based margin forecast, quantify volume, rate, and mix components of margin performance, and provide early warning so the business can act before results are finalized.

You will partner closely with Merchandise Finance, Merchants, Sourcing, and Pricing to translate operational activity—cost changes, promotional plans, mix shifts, and markdown decisions—into a forward view of realized merchandise margin. The position is designed for a rigorous analytical professional who enjoys building technically sound models that are commercially useful, and who can clearly present findings to senior leadership.

Responsibilities

Margin Forecasting

• Own the margin forecast model: build and maintain a driver-based merchandise margin forecast spanning initial markup, landed cost, markdown, mix, and shrink
• Drive the rolling forecast cadence: update and reissue the margin forecast on an established cadence, incorporating the latest cost, pricing, and demand inputs
• Quantify drivers: decompose margin performance and forecast changes into volume, rate, and mix, with clear attribution to specific business actions
• Model scenarios: quantify the margin impact of proposed pricing actions, cost changes, promotional plans, and assortment shifts

Variance Analysis & Reporting

• Own margin variance explanation: produce clear, well-structured bridges explaining margin actuals versus plan, forecast, and prior year
• Surface risks and opportunities: proactively identify emerging margin risks and quantified opportunities; escalate with recommended actions
• Deliver executive reporting: prepare margin performance packages and executive dashboards that translate complex analysis into a clear narrative
• Maintain analytical integrity: ensure consistent definitions, reliable data lineage, and reproducible methodology across all margin reporting

Cross-Functional Partnership

• Partner with Sourcing: incorporate landed cost movement, supplier negotiations, and total cost of ownership inputs into the margin view
• Partner with Pricing: quantify realized margin impact of pricing and promotional decisions and feed results back into future recommendations
• Partner with Merchandise Finance: ensure the margin forecast reconciles cleanly to the financial plan and the corporate forecast
• Support planning cycles: provide margin analytics that inform the annual operating plan and the merchandise long-range plan

Qualifications

Required

• Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Accounting, Economics, Statistics, or a related field
• 4–6 years of experience in financial analysis, merchandise finance, retail analytics, or a comparable analytical role
• Strong understanding of retail margin mechanics, including initial markup, landed cost, markdown, and realized margin
• Advanced Excel and financial modeling skills; proficiency with SQL strongly preferred
• Demonstrated ability to build driver-based forecast models and explain variance with analytical precision
• Strong communication skills, with the ability to present findings clearly to finance and non-finance leadership
• High standards for accuracy and analytical integrity, with the ability to move quickly without sacrificing either

Preferred

• Experience with enterprise planning tools such as Anaplan, Hyperion, or similar
• Furniture, home, or big-ticket retail experience
• Exposure to Power BI, Tableau, or comparable visualization tools

Success Metrics

In the first 12 months, this role will be evaluated on:

• Forecast Accuracy: demonstrated improvement in merchandise margin forecast accuracy against actual results
• Explanatory Power: margin variance consistently explained by identified drivers rather than unattributed residual
• Decision Support: margin analysis demonstrably informing pricing, sourcing, and assortment decisions on a recurring basis

Compensation & Benefits

Base Pay

• $80,000 - $100,000 (not including potential commissions, incentive, bonus, etc.)

Benefits & Perks

• Nationally provided Medical, Dental, and Vision Insurance
• Paid Vacation, Personal Days, Sick Days, Holidays, work anniversary, and your Birthday
• 401(k) Profit Sharing Plan with a generous company match
• Pet Insurance
• Life insurance: employer-paid basic Life Insurance, with the option to add Voluntary Life Insurance
• Financial Planning, Voluntary Legal Benefits, and Wellness Plans
• Generous Employee Discount starting on your 1st day
• Additional Employee Discounts through the “Hays Perks discount program” offering hundreds of online discounts

Location

Not specified in the provided job description.